Causal Impact Model to Evaluate the Diffusion Effect of Social Media Campaigns

Abstract

Organized information campaigns on social media platforms have influence on collective opinions through processes such as social influence and majority opinion formation. Evaluating the effect of such campaigns has become a critical question. We proposed a method by first characterize user engagement and the semantics in public discussions with social media data, then apply a causal impact analysis to measure the effect. We conducted a case study to examine the effect of the 16 Days Campaign (a campaign organized by UN Women) through changes in public discussions of the MeToo, which is a related topic the campaign was aimed to impact. Results showed there were significantly more discussions in MeToo after the launch of the campaign. Hashtags on 16Days topics were used more and by more people. The proposed methods evaluate the direct and indirect diffusion effect of a campaign by quantifying the difference had the campaign not taken place based on social media data. The method enables to evaluate the overall outcome of collaborative work in a social media campaign.